WASHINGTON DC (CBS) October 15, 2008
―
Democratic presidential nominee
Barack Obama is entering the third
and final presidential debate
Wednesday with a wide lead over
Republican rival John McCain
nationally, a new CBS News/New York
Times poll shows.
The Obama-Biden ticket now leads the
McCain-Palin ticket 53 percent to 39
percent among likely voters, a
14-point margin. One week ago, prior
to the Town Hall debate that
uncommitted voters saw as a win for
Obama, that margin was just three
points.
Among independents who are likely
voters
―
a group that has swung back and
forth between McCain and Obama over
the course of the campaign
―
the Democratic ticket now leads by
18 points. McCain led among
independents last week.
McCain's campaign strategy may be
hurting hurt him: Twenty-one percent
of voters say their opinion of the
Republican has changed for the worse
in the last few weeks. The top two
reasons cited for the change of
heart are McCain's attacks on Obama
and his choice of Sarah Palin as
running mate.
Obama is widely seen as running the
more positive campaign: Sixty-one
percent of those surveyed say McCain
is spending more time attacking his
opponent than explaining what he
would do as president. Just 27
percent say the same of Obama.
McCain's favorable rating has fallen
four points from last week, to 36
percent, and is now lower than his
41 percent unfavorable rating.
Obama, by contrast, is now viewed
favorably by half of registered
voters and unfavorably by just 32
percent.
Obama holds a considerable edge over
his rival on having the right
"personality and temperament" to be
president, with 69 percent saying
Obama does and 53 percent saying
McCain does. The Democratic nominee
is also widely seen as more likely
to make the right decision on the
economy, far and away the top issue
for voters, in a survey taken in the
immediate aftermath of last week's
historic Wall Street losses.
Opinions of the candidates could
still change, and potential trouble
spots remain for Obama, among them
the fact that small percentages of
voters cite Obama's past
associations with Bill Ayers (9
percent) and Reverend Jeremiah
Wright (11 percent) as issues that
bother them.
But with more than four out of five
of each candidates supporters now
saying their minds are made up, the
poll suggests that McCain faces
serious challenges as he looks to
close the gap on his Democratic
rival in the final three weeks of
the campaign.
Views Of The Candidates
Obama's lead over McCain when it
comes to the economy has grown since
last week, and a majority of
registered voters now say they are
not confident in McCain to make the
right decisions on economic issues.
Thirty-nine percent are not
confident in Obama.
There is, however, an opening for
the candidates in this area: Fewer
than one quarter are presently very
confident in either Obama or McCain
to make the right decisions on the
economic crisis.
On raising taxes
―
an area where a Republican nominee
might be expected to have an edge
―
Obama also leads. Despite the McCain
campaign's efforts to cast Obama as
a tax-raiser, more registered voters
say McCain is likely to raise their
taxes (51 percent) than say Obama
will raise their taxes (46 percent).
Voters are almost three times more
likely to be very confident in Obama
when it comes to health care (28
percent) than McCain (10 percent). A
majority of voters, 54 percent, are
not confident in McCain to handle
health care, while 33 percent are
not confident in Obama.
McCain continues to be hurt by his
perceived ties to the unpopular
Republican president, George W.
Bush, whose approval rating is 24
percent. More than half of
registered voters surveyed say they
expect McCain to continue Mr. Bush's
economic policies if he is elected.
Obama holds a more than 20-point
edge when it comes to understanding
voters' needs and problems, with 64
percent saying Obama does and 43
percent saying McCain does.
The Republican nominee does hold a
clear advantage on being seen as
prepared to be president, as he has
throughout the campaign. That
measure does not appear to be
boosting his support, however,
perhaps because while 64 percent say
McCain is prepared for the job, more
than half say Obama is as well.
Just 7 percent of registered voters
say their opinion of McCain has
improved recently, while 21 percent
say it has gotten worse. The numbers
are nearly reversed for Obama:
Seventeen percent say their opinion
of Obama has improved in recent
weeks, while 7 percent say it has
declined.
Obama now enjoys leads over McCain
with both men (53 percent to 41
percent) and women (52 percent to 37
percent). Eighty-two percent of
voters who backed Hillary Clinton in
the primaries now say they will back
Obama - up from 67 percent last week
and the highest number to date.
McCain still leads among
Republicans, conservatives and white
evangelicals, but the race is now
roughly even among whites, a group
McCain led 54 percent to 39 percent
last week.
With voter registration up in many
key states this year, 63 percent of
those casting a ballot for first
time in 2008 are backing Obama.
The Debates And The Candidates'
Past Associations
Seven in 10 registered voters said
they watched last weeks
presidential debate, and, looking
back, 57 percent of debate watchers
said Obama won the contest. Just 18
percent saw the debate as a McCain
victory.
Expectations are high for Obama in
Wednesday's third and final debate,
which 65 percent of registered
voters say they are very likely to
watch. Nearly half of all registered
voters expect Obama will win the
debate, while just 19 percent expect
McCain to win.
Recently, the McCain campaign has
gone after Obama about his
relationship with former Weather
Underground member Bill Ayers, and
McCain has signaled that he will
mention Ayers in the debate.
One in three voters say they have
heard "a lot" about Ayers, and 31
percent say they have heard
something about him, though far
fewer
―
9 percent
―
say the association bothers them.
Four percent of voters say that it
bothers them that Obama is a Muslim,
which he is not. Fifty-six percent
say nothing about Obamas past
bothers them.
As for the Republican candidate,
seven in ten voters say nothing
about McCains past bothers them.
Four percent mention the Keating
Five scandal that McCain was
involved in the late 1980s and early
1990s.
A majority of registered voters
believe the tone of the 2008
campaign has been about the same as
in past years. Thirty percent say it
has been more negative, while 15
percent say it has been more
positive.
Democrats, Republicans, And The
2008 House Vote
Americans have a much higher opinion
of the Democratic Party than the
Republican Party. A majority - 52
percent - have a favorable opinion
of the Democrats, while far less -
37 percent - have a favorable
opinion of Republicans.
The Democratic Party is seen as more
likely than the Republican Party to
make the right decision on health
care (55 percent to 18 percent), the
economy (47 percent to 29 percent),
and the war in Iraq (44 percent to
37 percent).
And when it comes to the House Of
Representatives, 48 percent of
likely voters say they will be
choosing the Democratic candidate in
November, compared to 34 percent who
plan to vote for the Republican
candidate.