AUSTIN (By Robert T. Garrett, Dallas Morning News) August 3, 2008 ― Democrat Rick Noriega needs huge help if he's going to pull off an upset this fall against Sen. John Cornyn, a Republican once thought to be vulnerable.

Because the state legislator from Houston is short on money, name recognition and big assists from his party, he'll have to rely on getting lucky breaks like a sudden scandal or Democratic tsunami at the polls to threaten Mr. Cornyn, political operatives from both parties say.

"Until he raises $10 million, he doesn't control his destiny," said Democratic political consultant Jason Stanford, who ran Democrat Chris Bell's lightly funded bid for governor in 2006.

"It's frustrating that Noriega isn't already winning. He's got so many advantages, and it's not taking him as far as anyone would like, " Mr. Stanford said. The advantages include Mr. Cornyn's vote against expanding children's health insurance, Barack Obama's potential to drive up turnout and growing Hispanic political strength in the state.

According to Democrats and Republicans who've run statewide political campaigns, Mr. Noriega — who a few weeks ago had only a tenth of Mr. Cornyn's $9.4 million war chest — desperately needs favorable national developments and a big increase in Democratic voter turnout Nov. 4. They said he also must generate free news media coverage to offset his money deficit, and stress more pocketbook issues.

Dallas County GOP Chairman Jonathan Neerman said Mr. Noriega needs a miracle.

"It would take a total meltdown on the Republican side and a major scandal like we had with Mark Foley in '06 for Senator Cornyn to go down," Mr. Neerman said, referring to a former Florida congressman's sexual advances to male congressional pages.

Last fall, Democrats sensed vulnerability in Mr. Cornyn, a freshman who has strongly supported President Bush's policies. Supporters counted as strengths Mr. Noriega's ethnicity — he is Hispanic — and his service in Afghanistan as a lieutenant colonel in the Texas National Guard.

Still, as one of 150 members of the Texas House, the five-term state representative isn't well-known beyond his Houston district. And he trails Mr. Cornyn by double digits in most polls.

Mr. Noriega said last week that his campaign will "have what we need to be competitive," relying on the Internet and coordinated Democratic campaigns to mobilize voters. He has stressed children's health insurance, Medicare, veterans benefits, clean energy and quick withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq.

Former Texas attorney general Jim Mattox, a Democrat, said Mr. Noriega needs a hotter issue, such as $4-a-gallon gasoline.

"I'd probably be holding press conferences in the lobbies of the major oil companies that have seen their profits skyrocket," said Mr. Mattox, whose bid to return as attorney general in 1998 was foiled by Mr. Cornyn, then a state Supreme Court justice.

Mr. Cornyn, trying to neutralize any harm that gas prices could cause him, recently sniped at Mr. Noriega for not supporting expanded oil production in pristine areas. Last week, Mr. Noriega called for legalization of offshore drilling, though he ruled out oil production in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

GOP consultant Jason Johnson said Mr. Noriega needs lots of Texans to cast a straight Democratic ticket, though many hesitate to vote for unknown candidates.