CHARITON, Iowa (By
June Kronholz, Wall Street Journal) November 20, 2007 — Barack Obama had
just ended his stump speech before a friendly audience in this tiny southern
Iowa town when Stephen Scott's hand shot up with a question. Would Mr. Obama, as
president, have signed last summer's failed "amnesty bill" for undocumented
immigrants, Mr. Scott, a local landscape painter, asked testily.
Mr. Obama cautiously walked through a long
answer that ended with a plan to give legal status to long-established
undocumented immigrants. "There. Another question," he said, shutting down
discussion.
The debate over how to deal with undocumented
immigrants split the Republican Party two years ago, infuriating its
social-conservative base and driving away Hispanic voters. It could be even more
perilous for Democrats.
Democratic strategists believe Hispanic voters
could swing a decisive handful of states — including Florida, Arizona, New
Mexico, Colorado and Nevada — to the Democrats in 2008, ensuring the election of
a Democratic president and cementing a Democratic majority for years to come.
But the party's blue-collar, middle-income and African-American supporters are
increasingly angry about undocumented immigration, much of it Hispanic.
Democrats "are pretty jumpy on the issue," says
Rep. Luis Gutierrez, an Illinois Democrat who pushed for immigration overhaul in
the House. "They would prefer to allow the Republicans to shepherd the Hispanic
votes into the Democratic column without having to scare away a single other
voter themselves," he says.
"That's not likely to happen. "This election
could turn on this issue if we don't handle it intelligently," says Connecticut
Sen. Christopher Dodd, a Democratic presidential candidate. After a recent Iowa
City foreign-policy speech, four of the 30 questions passed up to him from the
audience were about immigration.
In a Nov. 5 Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll,
11% of adults — and 4% of Democratic voters — said undocumented immigration is
their top priority. But members of that minority, organized on the Internet,
have created political turmoil by flooding lawmakers' offices with faxes and
regularly raising the issue on the campaign trail.
Similarly, a November University of Iowa poll
shows just 2.4% of Iowa Democrats consider immigration as the issue "most
important" to determining their vote, but 85% said a candidate's position on
immigration is important or very important to them.
In one sign of the tension within the
Democratic caucus, Hispanic-American lawmakers were furious last week that
Democratic leaders hadn't derailed Republican efforts to include a limited
English-only measure in a budget bill.
Hispanics made up 8% of the national vote in
2006, but their growing numbers and anger with the Republicans over such talk
could mean electoral gold for the Democrats. NDN, a nonprofit Democratic think
tank, predicts "there is no reasonable Republican road map to victory in 2008"
if growing Hispanic populations tip several key states into the Democratic
column.
But a pro-immigration policy risks alienating
other Democratic constituencies. Rep. Gutierrez blames the weakening U.S.
economy for fanning immigration anger among working-class voters. "It's easy
because people are afraid" about wages, mortgages and jobs, he says.
Even here in Chariton, where the Census Bureau
reports there are only 40 foreign-born residents, the Obama audience worried
that Mexican workers would displace Americans. "Joe Blow Citizen knows what's
going on," a middle-aged man told Mr. Obama. Schools crowded with
Spanish-speaking children and the lawlessness of undocumented immigration seem
to anger campaign audiences almost as much.
"A heck of a lot of middle-class Democrats feel
they're being overwhelmed by undocumented immigrants and they're reacting the
same as Republicans, only they're more ashamed to say so," says University of
Virginia political scientist James Ceaser.
Democrats also risk setting off a "rivalry
between the minorities" if they tilt toward Hispanics with their immigration
policy, says the University of Virginia's Mr. Ceaser. The rise of Hispanic
political power has come largely at the expense of African Americans, and
Hispanic immigrants have largely replaced blacks in some industries, including
construction.
Miami Urban League president T. Willard Fair,
among the few black leaders who speak openly about the effects of undocumented
immigration on African-Americans, says "there is an undercurrent" of resentment
in his community. Blacks aren't likely to leave the Democratic party over it, he
says, and they're reluctant to publicly oppose immigration because of their own
civil rights history. But "all you have to do is take a walk to the neighborhood
bar to hear the talk," he says.
The Democrats' problem is that they raised
immigration to a national issue by promoting an overhaul plan. Then, while it
was left bubbling, they failed to pass a bill, despite having a majority in
Congress, says Democratic strategist Peter Brodnitz who isn't affiliated with a
presidential candidate.
Democrats further angered many voters by
proposing some benefits for undocumented immigrants before producing any
economic relief for worried middle-class voters, adds Mr. Brodnitz.
Polls regularly show a majority of Americans
resigned to legalizing immigrants if the process includes penalties and is
balanced by improved border and workplace enforcement. But polls also show that
Americans are outraged about government benefits for undocumented immigrants,
which makes framing a campaign message tricky for the Democrats.
In a new Quinnipiac University poll of voters
in Ohio, a toss-up state, 55% favored legalizing unlawful immigrants. But only
11% said they should be allowed a driver's license and just 35% said their
children should be allowed to attend public school.
Republicans, meanwhile, see undocumented
immigration as a campaign bonanza because it motivates their base voters while
diverting attention from the Iraq war and sowing discord among the Democrats. In
the Wall Street Journal/NBC poll, 38% of Republicans said undocumented
immigration is their first or second priority.
That has turned immigration from a one-time
fringe issue into mainstream politics. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and
former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who while they were in office advocated
plans to help legalize unlawful immigrants, now pound away at plans to deny them
jobs and benefits.
And Republicans see value in linking
undocumented immigration to terrorism and national security, two issues where
polls show they have an edge over Democrats. In a new campaign ad, Rep. Tom
Tancredo, a Colorado Republican who is running for president as an immigration
opponent, warns that U.S. "open borders" policies invite another terrorist
attack.