Hispanics
Key to Clinton Victories in Nations Two
Biggest States
Washington D.C. (Pew)
March 8, 2008
Sen. Hillary Clinton would not have won
primaries in the nations two largest
states California and Texas if
Hispanics had not turned out in such large
numbers and if they had not voted so
heavily in her favor, according to an
analysis of exit polling data. She also
would not have carried a third state
New Mexico without strong Hispanic
support. In all three states, Hispanics
accounted for at least 30% of the total
votes cast in the Democratic primary,
and Clinton outpolled Sen. Barack Obama
among Hispanics by a ratio of about
two-to-one.
In
Tuesdays primary in Texas, Clintons
winning margin of votes among Hispanics
was nearly three times as great as her
overall statewide lead in votes.
Calculations based on exit poll data
show that Obama carried Texas by 55% to
44% among all non-Hispanic voters.
However, Hispanics accounted for 32% of
votes cast in the Texas primary, up from
24% in 2004. They favored Clinton over
Obama by 66% to 32%.
In the
Feb. 5 primary in California, Clintons
winning margin of votes among Hispanics
was slightly larger than her statewide
tally over Obama. Based on calculations
made using exit poll data, the vote for
Clinton and Obama among all non-Hispanic
voters was a statistical dead heat of
46% to 46%. However, Hispanics made up
30% of the Democratic primary electorate
in California, up from 16% in the 2004
Democratic primary. They favored Clinton
over Obama by 67% to 32%.
In a
tight race, Clinton won New Mexico by
only one percentage point. Among
Hispanics, however, her winning margin
of votes was nine times as great as her
overall statewide vote lead.
Non-Hispanics voted for Obama 56% to
41%. In contrast, Hispanics favored
Clinton 62% to 36%, and they were 35% of
all voters.
In
several other states, the Hispanic
contribution to Clinton victories was
not as pivotal as it was in Texas,
California and New Mexico, but it was
significant nonetheless. Hispanics
accounted for 20% or more of Clintons
winning margin in three of the four
other states for which the Hispanic vote
can be reliably estimated based on exit
poll results Arizona, Florida and New
Jersey.
Clinton
may have won all of these states even if
Hispanics had not turned out in such large
numbers and had not favored her by such
lopsided margins. But her margin of
victory would have been smaller, as
would the number of delegates she
garnered.
In
Illinois, the only state with a large
Hispanic electorate that Clinton has not
won, Hispanics gave their support
narrowly to their home-state senator.
Obama carried the Hispanic vote in
Illinois by one percentage point,
compared with his overall victory margin
of 38 percentage points.
As the
rest of the primary season unfolds,
Hispanics will play a lesser role
because they do not constitute a major
share of the eligible voters in any of
the remaining states. However, on June 1
voters in Puerto Rico will choose their
55 pledged delegates and Hispanics will
comprise virtually the entire electorate
in that contest. Also, if there is a
revote in Florida and Michigan as some
Democratic Party leaders are now urging
Hispanics are poised to play a
significant role in Florida, where they
accounted for 12% of the turnout in a
January 29 primary that produced no
delegates because of an intra-party
dispute over the timing of the contest.
In that January vote, Hispanics in Florida
favored Clinton over Obama by 59% to
30%.
"So far
this year, 78 percent of Hispanics who
have voted in presidential election
contests have voted Democratic,'' says
Andres Ramires, vice president for
Hispanic Programs at the New Democrat
Network. And their numbers have
accounted for 15 percent of the overall
vote in 2008, their studies have found,
up from nine percent in 2004.
"These results are just the latest in a
long line of evidence indicating that
the anti-immigrant stance of the GOP,
first adopted in late 2005, has turned
the Hispanic community against
Republicans and has encouraged them to
vote in unprecedented numbers,'' he
says.
For a
complete rundown of the turnout,
demographic characteristics, attitudes
and candidate preferences of Hispanics in
all Democratic primaries and caucuses
held so far in 2008.