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Hispanics Key Factor in President Barack
Obama Victory
WASHINGTON
DC (By
Jennifer De Pinto,
CBS) November 19, 2008
Hispanics were a key factor in
President-elect Barack Obamas victory.
He captured the support of 67 percent of
this group, an increase of 14 points
over John Kerrys 53 percent in 2004.
Republican nominee John McCain took just
31 percent, down from the 44 percent
President Bush received in 2004.
Yet, these voters were not solidly
behind Obama during the Democratic
primaries. In fact, Hillary Clinton won
the support of about six in 10 Hispanics
in those contests and they were
essential to her victories in the
California and Texas primaries.
As the primaries ended and the general
election campaign got underway,
Hispanics warmed to Obama. A troubled
economy and dissatisfaction with the
current President and his party drove
more Hispanics to the Democratic column
this time around.
As expected, Obama did better among
younger Hispanics nationwide than with
older Hispanics. Seventy-six percent of
Hispanics under age 30 supported the
Illinois Senator; but 62 percent of
those 30 and over also backed him.
Obama won the support of even the most
religious Hispanics getting the backing
of 62 percent of those who attend
religious services at least once a week.
In 2004, Bush won this group by 52
percent to 46 percent. Seventy-two
percent of Hispanic Catholics also voted
for Obama. Fifty-eight percent of this
group backed Kerry in 2004.
Like most voters in this years
election, the economy was the dominant
issues for Hispanics. Forty-one percent
were also looking for a candidate who
could bring change, higher than the 34
percent of the overall electorate who
said that (including just 29 percent of
whites). And among those Hispanic change
voters, 93 percent voted for Obama.
The Role Of Race
There was considerable discussion about
race and what role it might play in this
election. Early in the campaign, there
was speculation that Hispanic voters
might not embrace an African American
candidate. In a January 2008 interview
with The New Yorker, Clinton pollster
Sergio Bendixen said "the Hispanic voter
-- and I want to say this very carefully
-- has not shown a lot of willingness or
affinity to support black candidates."
Exit polls found that 23 percent of
Hispanics said race was a factor in
their vote President. Thirty-two percent
of blacks said it was, as did 17 percent
of whites.
But among those Hispanics who said race
was a factor, 68 percent voted for
Obama; fewer than a third (31 percent)
backed McCain. On the other hand, 61
percent of whites who said race was a
factor supported McCain. Of the third of
blacks who cited race as a factor in
their vote, nearly all backed Obama.
The GOP And President Bush
Like the electorate overall, Hispanics
were more likely to identify themselves
as Democrats in 2008 compared to 2004
and fewer described themselves as
Republicans. Fifty-one percent called
themselves Democrats this year, compared
to 42 percent who did so in 2004.
Hispanic voters identifying themselves
as Republicans fell from 31 percent in
2004 to 21 percent this year.
Moreover, Hispanics views of Bush (along
with the electorate has a whole) changed
dramatically over the past four years.
On Election Day in 2004, 51 percent of
Hispanics approved of the job George W.
Bush was doing as President, but this
year, that number dropped to 21 percent.
With dismal ratings like these, it did
not help John McCain that just over half
of Hispanics thought the Arizona Senator
would continue Bushs policies.
In fact, 35 percent of Hispanic voters
who backed Obama this year, supported
Bush four years ago.
Helping Turn Red States Blue
Hispanics were instrumental in helping
turn some 2004 red states blue in 2008.
In Florida, Obama won 57 percent of the
Hispanic vote, a reversal from 2004,
when about the same number 56 percent
- backed Bush, the Republican.
The share of the Hispanic vote increased
in three important red states from 2004:
Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. Obama
got solid majorities of the Hispanic
vote in all three, significantly
improving on Kerrys numbers in both
Nevada and New Mexico, putting these
states in the Democratic column this
year. In Nevada, the Democratic share of
the Hispanic vote rose from 60 percent
to 76 percent, in New Mexico, Obama
received 69 percent compared to 56
percent for Kerry in 2004.
A More Diverse Electorate
According to the exit polls, 28 percent
of Hispanics voters were casting a
ballot for the first time in 2008,
compared to 19 percent of African
Americans and 8 percent of whites who
were new voters. Also, voters age 18-29,
a group Obama won handily, are more
racially diverse than the electorate as
a whole. Fourteen percent of young
voters were Hispanic (compared to 9
percent of voters overall), and another
18 percent were African American.
With the American electorate becoming
more diverse, Hispanics are likely to
remain key group that both political
parties hope to attract.
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