Hispanics have Arrived as Major
Force
WASHINGTON
(By
Jill Lawrence, USA Today) February
7, 2008 The ongoing Democratic
presidential race combined with
Hispanic population growth and diverse
states on the early calendar have
ignited the first spirited battle
for Hispanic votes in a primary
season.
The
rivalry between Hillary Rodham Clinton
and Barack Obama is a turning point,
said Simon Rosenberg, president of the
New Democrat Network, which studies
Hispanic voting. "Hispanics have arrived
as a major force. This is now a
permanent condition of American politics
in the 21st century," he said.
Clinton, the New York senator and former
first lady, has a 16-year history of
working with Hispanics and began laying
the groundwork with them for her
presidential run in late 2006. Obama,
the Illinois senator, started a push for
Hispanic votes last month as Feb. 5
primaries neared in several states with
large Hispanic voting blocs.
Obama
won 26% of the Hispanic vote in the
Nevada caucuses Jan. 20, compared with
64% for Clinton.
In
states this week where at least 10% of
voters were Hispanic, his share ranged
from 26% in Clinton's home state of New
York to 50% in his own home state of
Illinois, surveys of voters leaving the
polls showed. In California, where three
in 10 voters were Hispanic, his 32%
share was an improvement on earlier
polls but not enough to help him win.
Republican candidates did not have a
high-profile competition for Hispanics.
In California they were 13% of the
electorate.
Obama
was boosted in the days before Super
Tuesday by endorsements from
Massachusetts Sen. Edward Kennedy and
Southern California's La Opiniσn,
the largest Spanish-language daily
newspaper in the USA. He also made
points in a debate at which he
reaffirmed his support for driver's
licenses for undocumented immigrants and
refused to blame them for joblessness
among blacks.
On
Wednesday, Obama said he has made
"enormous progress" among Hispanics and
will do better as he becomes more
familiar. "It's just a matter of us
getting more information to them," he
said in Chicago. "As Hispanic voters get
to know me
they realize I'm somebody
who's going to be battling for all
people, including Hispanic voters."
Still,
several analysts say Obama was late to
ramp up his appeal to Hispanics, and it
cost him in Nevada and California. "You
have to ask Hispanics for their vote and
not just assume you have their vote
because you share this common history of
oppression," said Andra Gillespie, a
political scientist at Emory University
in Atlanta.
Obama
introduced himself in Feb. 5 states with
a Spanish-language television ad just
days before Super Tuesday. Matt Barreto,
an expert on Hispanic politics at the
University of Washington, said Obama
made far less use of Spanish-language
radio in the Southwest. "That was a huge
mistake. It is a very powerful medium,"
he said.
Texas
is the only remaining primary with a
major Hispanic component, on March 4.
Rosenberg and others said Obama needs to
introduce himself, talk about his views
on immigration and his plans to help
struggling workers, and generally signal
that he cares. "This is no longer about
sending surrogates. He's got to make the
case himself," Rosenberg said.
Obama
spokesman Tommy Vietor rejected the
notion that the campaign got a late
start, noting the primary season is
"sequential" and outreach to Hispanics
in the first contest, in Iowa, helped
Obama win a key victory.
Analysts give many reasons for Clinton's
dominance in this group:
She
has a famous name, a long history with
the community and a husband who put many
Hispanics in his Cabinet and
administration.
Her
focus on economic nuts and bolts may
have had more appeal to Hispanics than
Obama's "change" message. "This
population is very blue-collar," says
Roberto Suro, a University of Southern
California professor and former head of
the Pew Hispanic Center. That puts them
squarely within the lower-income, less
educated demographic Clinton has
dominated in primaries to date.
Blue-collar Hispanics are less likely
to know of Obama. "People who hear about
a challenger tend to be higher educated
individuals" who watch news and use the
Web, said Rodolfo Espino, a political
scientist at Arizona State University.
In
California, Suro said, Clinton started
lining up endorsements and making
appearances as far back as 2006. On
Tuesday, she had help getting out the
vote from many elected officials with
effective political organizations,
including Los Angeles Mayor Antonio
Villaraigosa.
All the
analysts dismissed the idea that Obama
is lagging because Hispanics are reluctant
to vote for blacks. Barreto said there's
very little evidence of that. To the
contrary, black mayors Harold Washington
of Chicago, David Dinkins of New York,
Wellington Webb of Denver and Ron Kirk
of Dallas all received overwhelming
Hispanic support when they were elected
to office.
Obama's
own career is another example, Barreto
said: In his 2004 Senate primary, Obama
won more Hispanic votes than Hispanic
candidate Gerry Chico.
In 2008,
for Obama, "it's a name-recognition
thing," Barreto said. "It's an outreach
thing."