In 2004, George Bush won all four of those states by five percentage points or less, and all four of them are regarded as key battlefields this time around.
Florida, as the fourth-biggest state in the union and electorally one of the closest, is a place where the large Hispanic vote could well prove decisive: Jeb Bush, the president’s brother and the governor of Florida at the time of the 2000 and 2004 elections, has a Hispanic wife and helped boost the Republican’s share of the Hispanic vote there. But he is now gone.
Across the border states and beyond, Spanish-language radio stations are pushing listeners to become citizens and register to vote, apparently to some effect. Last week the Department of Homeland Security revealed 122,258 Mexicans became citizens in 2007 — up 59% from 2005.
Another difference between Hispanic and black voters is neither party can depend on them. George Bush keenly courted Hispanics, in part by appealing to their socially conservative instincts. He won at least 40% of the Hispanic vote in 2004. “I know how powerful this community is,” said Mr. Obama on July 13th. “And, by the way, so does John McCain.”
Until recently it seemed as though the latter might be able to match or even exceed Mr.. Bush’s haul. A series of unpatriotic, much-televised statements by Mr. Obama’s pastor had greatly offended a group that came to America willingly. Hillary Clinton had won the great majority of Hispanic votes in the Democratic primaries. Mr. McCain represents a heavily Hispanic state and has often called for America’s roughly 12m undocumented immigrants to be treated sensibly and humanely.
Unfortunately, though, Mr. McCain is a Republican. Hispanics share the general current contempt for Mr. Bush’s party, and have a few grievances of their own. It was, after all, Republicans who wrecked a bill last year that would have allowed most undocumented immigrants to become citizens. It was Republicans who ran television ads in 2006 comparing laborers who stole across the Mexican border to terrorists. As the other candidates tacked to the right during the primaries, the Arizona senator at first hesitated and then seemed to follow. In January he was asked whether he still supported the immigration bill he had helped craft. No, he said.
McCain’s mountain to climb
These days pollsters put Mr. Obama 30 points ahead of Mr. McCain among Hispanic voters. Largely because of them, he has opened a small lead in Colorado and New Mexico plus a huge one in solidly Democratic California. Hispanics have even helped Mr. Obama close to within ten points in the Republican redoubt of Texas. Mr. McCain had the chance to reverse the slide this week — the third time in just over a fortnight he had addressed a big Hispanic organization. He not only failed to do so, but at times seemed to concede the Hispanic vote. “I know many of you are Democrats, regrettably,” he told 2,000 listeners in San Diego.
Whereas Mr. Obama promised quick action on immigration reform, the Arizona senator simply asked the audience to trust he would get around to it once the border has been secured, which everyone knows will take a long time if it ever happens at all. He expressed sympathy for undocumented immigrants in the vaguest terms ― “We cannot forget the humanity God commands of us.” He answered an anguished question about workplace immigration raids by explaining, rather loftily, that this was a symptom of a broader problem rather than a problem in itself.
The crowd, which had cheered Mr. Obama, listened politely. That may not worry the Republican candidate. He was not just addressing Hispanics — and nor was he simply trimming to the nativists who lurked outside with signs condemning “Juan McAmnesty.” The average white American grudgingly concedes it is neither possible nor wise to deport 12m people. But he is angry with undocumented immigrants for flouting the law, and wants the border fixed. So do many Hispanics, particularly those like Florida’s Cubans whose right to live in America has never been questioned.
In his pursuit of Hispanic voters, Mr. Obama is straying to the left of mainstream opinion. His speech on July 13th hinted at a distaste for workplace raids and did not mention the many undocumented immigrants who have committed crimes. During the primary race he expressed support for a plan by Eliot Spitzer, then the governor of New York, to allow undocumented to apply for driving licenses. This is the sort of thing that rattles independent voters and fires up the Republican base.
Yet Mr. Obama’s strength among Hispanic voters does not just have to do with his position on immigration. Nor does Mr. McCain’s weakness have to do with his stance on the subject. Hispanics are concerned about issues like foreclosure, school dropout rates and health insurance diabetes. Hispanics worry more than most about these things, but they are not the only people who worry about them. Mr. McCain’s real problem is he has so far failed to convince Americans, Hispanic or otherwise, that he can come up with solutions to ordinary problems.
