SAN FRANCISCO (By Tyche Hendricks, SF Chronicle) May 21, 2008 — The Democrats' best strategy to win the presidency this year could lie in an energetic campaign to turn out Hispanic voters in key swing states, according to Democratic political strategists who cite Hispanics' surging voter participation and intensifying preference for Democrats.

"Hispanics happen to fall in these very consequential battleground states and may determine who the next president is," said Simon Rosenberg, president of NDN, a Washington political strategy group formerly known as the New Democrat Network. "This is adding a whole new dynamic in this election that didn't exist in 2004 and may change this election."

Although President Bush successfully attracted a record 40 percent of Hispanic votes in 2004, Hispanics have been much more inclined to favor Democrats over the past couple of years, said Rosenberg. So far this year, Hispanics have been three times as likely to vote in Democratic primaries as Republican ones.

On top of that, Hispanics have voted in growing numbers in recent years. The 7.6 million Hispanics who cast votes in 2004 represented a 27 percent increase over 2000 and comprised 6 percent of the entire U.S. turnout. And high-powered voter registration drives this year are expected to increase Hispanic turnout in the November election to anywhere from 8.5 million to 10.5 million voters.

"Starting in the fall of 2005, the Republican brand was severely degraded" in the eyes of Hispanics, Rosenberg said, as a result of harsh rhetoric surrounding Wisconsin Republican Rep. James Sensenbrenner's immigration enforcement bill that would have made felons of undocumented immigrants and people who help them.

"That caused a huge swing toward the Democrats," he said. "We also had an enormous increase in voter registration, citizenship applications and all measures of civic participation. ... Spanish-language media is spending an enormous amount of time on voter participation in a way that was not done in 2004."

Those factors combined could position Hispanics to swing several key states to the Democratic nominee come November, said Rosenberg. He is fixing his sights on New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado and Florida, where the traditionally Republican Cuban exile population is giving way to second-generation Cubans and other Hispanics who identify as Democrats or independents.

But other analysts say Democratic victories in those states are not a slam-dunk, even with a growing Hispanic Democratic electorate.

"They could potentially make a difference for a Democratic candidate," said UC Irvine political science Professor Louis DeSipio, but that will depend on how much energy Democrats put into actually getting Hispanic voters to the polls.

"Turnout only happens when resources are invested to turn people out," he said. "That's why that decision about how to allocate resources becomes very important."

DeSipio pulled Arizona off the list of battleground states because it is home to likely Republican nominee Sen. John McCain. He called New Mexico and Florida the most likely states to swing Democratic. "Hispanics will be part of both strategies," he said.

Maria Echaveste, former deputy chief of staff to President Bill Clinton, warned Democrats that if Sen. Barack Obama is the party's nominee, he'll have to focus more on Hispanic voters than Sen. John Kerry did in 2004.

"Kerry did not close the deal; he spent very little money on advertising in the Hispanic community until the very last," said Echaveste, a supporter of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. "Obama cannot make that mistake. He's got to go to all those places that are already being primed to vote Democratic and persuade Hispanics to vote for him over McCain because the Democratic agenda is much better for Hispanic families."

The Democratic strategy will have to be multifaceted, she said, reaching Hispanics through old-fashioned field organizing as well as media in English and Spanish, Echaveste said.

"There's absolutely a sense of possibility, but it's not going to happen without work," she said, warning that Democrats must not write off McCain's appeal to Hispanics.

McCain must walk a tightrope between reaching out to Hispanic voters with support for comprehensive immigration reform and maintaining support from a more conservative Republican base that wants a tougher line on immigration, said California Republican political strategist Arnold Steinberg.

"The party's principal position on immigration has not been marketed well, so the party has been caricatured as anti-immigrant," he said. "McCain can only do so much with the Hispanic vote, but he needs to strike the right chord that keeps his base and reaches out to the Hispanic vote. That balance is secure borders first and then a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants already in the country. You can't deviate much from that position either way."