Clinton
Seeks to Offset Black Defections by Courting Hispanics
WASHINGTON (By Hans Nichols, Bloomberg) August 15, 2007 —
Representative Ciro Rodriguez picked up his phone in June and heard a
familiar, raspy voice: It was former President Bill Clinton, asking the
Texas Democrat to endorse his wife Hillary's White House bid.
"So far, they're the only campaign to contact me,'' said
Rodriguez, former chairman of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. He's
mulling the request, and hasn't forgotten that the former president
campaigned for him in last year's congressional election. "He's done a lot
for me,'' said Rodriguez.
Senator Clinton's campaign is bracing for a possible swing
of black voters toward her chief rival, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, by
focusing more attention on Hispanic voters. With one eye on the nomination
and the other on the general election, Clinton, 59, has seeded her staff
with Spanish-speaking operatives, starting with Patti Solis Doyle, her
campaign manager.
"I'm taking this one personally,'' Solis Doyle said. "In
2004, Republicans made some inroads with the Hispanic vote. It's our
intention to get that vote back.''
Hispanics may play a key role in the 2008 Democratic
nominating process as well. Obama, 46, whose father was Kenyan, will
"probably draw about 60 percent of the African-American community,'' said
Representative Edolphus Towns, a black Democrat from New York who has
endorsed Clinton. To win, "she's going to have to beat him in the Hispanic
community.''
Adding to the Calendar
Party leaders added two Hispanic-laden states to the front
of their nominating calendar: Nevada, where they make up about 20 percent of
Democrats, and Florida, where they account for about 10 percent, according
to Matt Barreto, a political scientist at the University of Washington in
Seattle. They will likely join Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina as
contests that can slingshot a candidate to the nomination.
"Hispanics have an unprecedented opportunity to be a
decisive factor in Nevada and Florida,'' said Luis Navarro, manager of
Delaware Senator Joe Biden's presidential bid.
The campaigns themselves don't know how many Hispanics
will vote in primaries and caucuses, which historically see low
participation by Latinos. "We just don't have numbers on that,'' said
Hilarie Grey, Clinton's spokeswoman in Nevada.
To complicate matters, the Hispanic vote isn't monolithic.
In Florida, for instance, Cuban-Americans in southern counties lean
Republican. Elsewhere in the state, a growing population of Puerto Ricans
and non-Cuban Hispanics is voting Democratic.
Western Targets
More certain is the effect Hispanics will have in the
general election, especially in three western states that Bush narrowly won
in 2004: Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. All three have expanding numbers
of Latinos, with New Mexico's now at 31 percent of the population.
President George W. Bush captured more than 40 percent of
the Hispanic vote in 2004, much better than the 21 percent Republicans
received in 2096.
After a divisive immigration debate, however,
congressional Republicans saw a sharp decline in Hispanic support in 2006,
with their share dropping to 30 percent, according to exit polls.
At the same time, overall Hispanic turnout rose to 8
percent of the electorate, up 33 percent from 2002, said Simon Rosenberg,
president of NDN, a Democratic advocacy group in Washington.
Arizona, which Bush carried with 55 percent of the vote in
2004, might also be in play along with Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, said
Moses Mercado, who directed Senator John Kerry's 2004 presidential campaign
in New Mexico. "Even if turnout stays the same and Hispanics vote like they
did in 2006, not 2004, we win all those states,'' he said.
Clinton's Edge
In both the primary and general election, Clinton has a
distinct advantage. "It's all part of our long drawn-out love affair with
Bill,'' said Representative Jose Serrano of New York, who has endorsed
Senator Clinton. A recent AP/Ipsos survey of Hispanics gave her 45 percent,
Obama 17 percent and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, whose mother is
Mexican, 5 percent.
"We never expect to be ahead in national polls,'' said Jen
Psaki, an Obama spokeswoman. She said Obama has appeared on Hispanic media,
including radio and TV shows on the Univision network. He also has the
endorsement of many Hispanic leaders in Illinois, among them Representative
Luis Gutierrez, Obama's sole Hispanic backer in Congress.
"When you know him, you like him,'' said Gutierrez. "He
has lots of room for growth.''
Even in Iowa
The scramble for Hispanic votes has even reached Iowa,
where Latinos make up roughly 4 percent of the electorate. Earlier this
summer, several campaigns tried to enlist Alfred Ramirez, executive director
of Diversity Focus, a minority advocacy group in Cedar Rapids. He signed
with Senator Clinton.
Clinton seems to be pressing her advantage. She has
designated a press secretary for Hispanic media, Fabiola Rodriguez-Ciampoli,
as well as a Hispanic outreach director, Laura Peña. Sergio Bendixen is
conducting Hispanic polling.
Meanwhile, the
Democrats' lone Hispanic candidate, New Mexico's Richardson, has identified
his own ethnic liability: an Anglo last name. Richardson will gain traction
"once Hispanics recognize and realize that one of their own is a
candidate,'' said Rick Hernandez, a campaign adviser.
