SAN
ANTONIO (By Patrick Healy, NYTimes)
February 12, 2008 — Senator Hillary
Rodham Clinton and her advisers
increasingly believe, after a
series of losses, she has been boxed
into a must-win position in the Ohio
and Texas primaries on March 4, and
she has begun reassuring anxious
donors and super delegates the
nomination is not slipping away from
her, aides said on Monday.
Mrs.
Clinton held a buck-up-the-troops
conference call on Monday with
donors, super delegates and other
supporters; several said afterward
that she had sounded tired and a
little down, but determined about
Ohio and Texas.
They also said they had not
been especially soothed, and they believed she might be on a
losing streak that could jeopardize
her competitiveness in those states.
“She has to win both Ohio and Texas
comfortably, or she’s out,” said one
super delegate who has endorsed Mrs.
Clinton, and who spoke on condition
of anonymity to share a candid
assessment. “The campaign is
starting to come to terms with
that.” Campaign advisers, also
speaking privately in order to speak
plainly, confirmed this view.
Several Clinton super delegates,
whose votes could help decide the
nomination, said Monday that they
were wavering in the face of Mr.
Obama’s momentum after victories in
Washington State, Nebraska,
Louisiana and Maine last weekend.
Some said that they, like the
hundreds of uncommitted super
delegates still at stake, might
ultimately “go with the flow,” in
the words of one, and support the
candidate who appears to show the
most strength in the primaries to
come.
The
Clinton team moved on Monday to
shift the spotlight off the
candidate’s short-term challenges
and focus instead on “the long run,”
in the words of her senior
strategist, Mark Penn.
“She has consistently shown an
electoral resiliency in difficult
situations that have made her a
winner,” Mr. Penn said. “Senator
Obama has in fact never had a
serious Republican challenger.”
Clinton advisers have said
super delegates should support the
candidate who they believe would be
the best nominee and the best
president, while Obama advisers have
argued that super delegates should
reflect the will of the voters and
also take into account who they
believe would be the best nominee. Super delegates are Democratic party
leaders and elected officials, and
their votes could decide the
nomination if neither candidate wins
enough delegates to clinch a victory
after the nominating contests end.
With primaries on Tuesday in
Maryland, Virginia, and the District
of Columbia, Clinton advisers were
pessimistic about her chances,
though some held out hope for a
surprise performance in Virginia.
And
as polls show Mr. Obama gaining
strength in Wisconsin and his native
state, Hawaii, which vote next
Tuesday, advisers, donors and super
delegates said they were resigned to
a possible Obama sweep of the rest
of February’s contests.
Some donors also expressed concern
about a widening money imbalance
between Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton:
Obama fund-raisers say he is taking
in roughly $1 million a day, while
Clinton fund-raisers say she is
taking in about half of that, mostly
online. Mrs. Clinton’s aides say
the campaign was virtually
broke as of the Feb. 5 primaries,
but that finances have stabilized.
Mr.
Obama’s financial edge allowed him
to begin running television
advertisements in Ohio and Texas on
Monday, while the Clinton campaign
plans to begin advertising on
Tuesday. Clinton advisers say
she will have advertisements running
statewide in both Ohio and Texas,
and she will have
advertisements in English and
Spanish in Texas.
“I
think clearly things have not
been going as great as they were
with her victories on Super Tuesday,
and we can’t wait to get to March
4,” said Alan Patricof, one of Mrs.
Clinton’s national finance chairmen.
Mrs. Clinton will have “a major ad
buy” through the next week in
Wisconsin, a senior adviser said
Monday, and spend a few days
campaigning there. But this adviser
and others said the bulk of her time
would be devoted to campaigning in
Ohio, Texas and a bit in Rhode
Island. In a sign of Texas’s
importance, she plans to fly there
Tuesday, even though Wisconsin votes
next week.
While Mrs. Clinton’s advisers and
allies emphasize she has the
time and the financial resources to
regroup, they say she will have to
take more significant steps to shore
up her candidacy beyond the staff
shakeup she engineered on Sunday,
when she replaced her campaign
manager and longtime aide, Patti
Solis Doyle, with another veteran
adviser, Maggie Williams.
Campaign advisers said they expected
Ms. Williams to bring new energy to
both the campaign team and Mrs.
Clinton, after a long year of
campaigning, and to encourage her to
show more spunk and determination on
the campaign trail. They say they do
not expect the candidate’s political
message to change appreciably; she
will increasingly focus on the
concerns of working-class voters, a
key demographic in Ohio, as well as
of Hispanics, a significant
population in Texas.
As
she seeks to erect a fire wall for
her candidacy in Ohio and Texas,
Mrs. Clinton will deploy her
husband, former President Bill
Clinton, to campaign in both states,
particularly in Ohio, where her
advisers believe his popularity will
help her with working-class voters,
labor union members and black
voters.
In
a conference call with reporters on
Monday, Mr. Penn, who is also Mrs.
Clinton’s pollster, played down some
polls that showed strength for Mr.
Obama and highlighted Mrs. Clinton’s
abilities to beat the leading
Republican candidate, Senator John
McCain of Arizona.
“We
believe Hillary Clinton in the
long run is better positioned to
take on John McCain,” Mr. Penn said.
Yet
some Clinton donors and super
delegates worry the focus on
Mr. McCain is premature, and
other strategic decisions by the
campaign — like counting on Michigan
and Florida delegates to be seated
at the convention even though their
status is in limbo — show faulty
thinking suggests the Clinton
campaign does not have a short-term
game plan against Mr. Obama.
“They are looking way too much at
Florida, Michigan and McCain,
because all three won’t matter if
she doesn’t blow Obama away in Texas
and Ohio,” said a Democrat who is
both a Clinton super delegate and
major donor, and who spoke on
condition of anonymity to offer a
candid assessment of campaign
strategy. “Obama has momentum that
has to be stopped by March 4.”
Clinton advisers took issue with the
notion Mr. Obama’s momentum was
significant, noting his victory
in the Iowa caucuses did not
translate into winning the New
Hampshire primary five days later,
and his South Carolina victory did
not prevent Mrs. Clinton from
winning the biggest states on Feb.
5.
“There is no evidence voters
are voting based on momentum — in
fact the evidence is to the
contrary,” said Howard Wolfson, Mrs.
Clinton’s communications director.
Hassan Nemazee, another national
finance chairman for Mrs. Clinton,
said he was also telling his network
of allies not to get caught up in
the headlines about Obama.
“I’m telling donors and supporters:
Don’t be overly concerned about what
goes on in the remainder of the
month of February because these are
not states teed up well for us,” Mr.
Nemazee said.
Asked if that message was sinking
in, he pointed to the campaign’s
announcement Mrs. Clinton had
raised $10 million online so far
this month, and was on pace to raise
more than $25 million in February.
“I
predict for you we will have our
best single fund-raising month in
February, and that’s significant,”
he said.