In his 2004 re-election, Bush won an
estimated 40 percent of the Hispanic vote, stirring Democratic fears that
their long-standing support from Hispanic voters was in doubt. But by 2006,
without Bush on the ballot, and following passage of a harsh immigration
bill by a Republican House, nearly 70 percent of Hispanic votes went to
Democrats, according to exit polls. The climate since the election has left
some Republicans worried that the future of the relationship between Latinos
and the GOP could be increasingly difficult.
"Once you've been tagged as
anti-immigration, it takes a decade or a generation to get that back, just
like the civil rights issue in the '60s," said Arizona Rep. Jeff Flake, who
has authored his own comprehensive immigration bill in the House.
Arizona Sen. John McCain was the only
Republican presidential candidate to support the Senate bill at a New
Hampshire debate this month and was one of only seven GOP senators to back a
vote to end debate on the bill last week. The failure to generate 60 votes
for the motion caused Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid to pull the
bill. There is certainly more support for the compromise immigration package
than the vote would indicate—those voting no on ending debate included
several Republican senators who crafted the bill. And the Republican
National Committee has attempted to minimize the negative impact the debate
is having on Republican standing among Hispanics, highlighting a number of
appearances by Martinez in Hispanic media. But Martinez, the RNC chair, does
not have the backing of the majority of his party on this issue.
That doesn't mean the Democrats are united.
Eleven Democrats voted against the cloture motion, and some of the
amendments that most threatened the fragile compromise came from the left.
Nor are Hispanic groups wholeheartedly in favor of the bill, which links a
guest-worker program and path to citizenship for illegal immigrants with
enforcement provisions and barriers to citizenship that many consider too
punitive. While the National Council of La Raza has supported the bill with
reservations, the League of United Latin American Citizens has not. But most
Democrats who have attempted to amend the bill have tried to remove portions
that Hispanic groups consider onerous, while most Republican amendments
would enhance those provisions.
"I think that the willingness to address
the problem is the No. 1 issue," said Michele Waslin, director of
immigration policy research at La Raza.
A growing rift between Hispanics and the
GOP could have ominous political overtones. The Hispanic population grew by
more than 20 percent between 2000 and 2005 and now represents the country's
largest minority group. Using 2004 exit poll numbers and projected increases
in the Hispanic population, the Democratic micro targeting firm Strategic
Telemetry estimated that Hispanic voters would move the battleground states
of Nevada and New Mexico into the Democratic column by 2016. If the 2004
election were replayed in 2020, the study calculated, the Democratic
candidate would also take Iowa and Ohio, winning the White House with 283
electoral votes.
The changes in the primary schedule for
2008 will only accelerate the emergence of Hispanics as a crucial voter
group. In part to have the eventual nominee better represent Hispanic voters,
the DNC moved up the Nevada caucus to January 20, between the more
monochromatic Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary. A number of states with
large Hispanic populations—including Florida, California, and New
Jersey—have also moved up their own primaries to closely follow New
Hampshire.
"We'll have what I refer to as 'Hispanic
Tuesday,'" says Adam Segal, director of the Hispanic Voter Project at Johns
Hopkins University, a play on the "Super Tuesday" cluster of primaries. But
the real Hispanic Tuesday may not come until Nov. 4, 2008, when voters will
pick a new occupant of the White House.
