U.S. in 2050: Minority becomes
Majority
117
Million New U.S. Hispanics in Next 42
Years
WASHINGTON D.C. (Pew
Research Center) February 11, 2008 — If
current trends continue, the population
of the United States will rise to 438
million in 2050, from 296 million in
2005, and 82% (117 million) of the
increase will be due to immigrants
arriving from 2005 to 2050 and their
U.S.-born descendants, according to new
projections developed by the Pew
Research Center.
Of the 117 million
Hispanics added to the population during
this period due to the effect of new
immigration, 67 million will be the
immigrants themselves and 50 million
will be their U.S.-born children or
grandchildren.
Among the other key
population projections:
• Nearly one in five
Americans (20%) will be an immigrant in
2050, compared with one in eight (12%)
in 2005. By 2025, the immigrant, or
foreign born, share of the population
will surpass the peak during the last
great wave of immigration a century ago.
• The major role of
immigration in national growth builds on
the pattern of recent decades, during
which immigrants and their U.S.-born
children and grandchildren accounted for
most population increase. Immigration's
importance increased as the average
number of births to U.S.-born women
dropped sharply before leveling off.
• The Hispanic
population, already the nation's largest
minority group, will triple in size and
will account for most of the nation's
population growth from 2005 through
2050. Hispanics will make up 29% of the
U.S. population in 2050, compared with
14% in 2005.
•
By 2097, 50% of
the entire U.S. population will be
Hispanic with Africans Americans 22%,
Asians 14%, Native Americans 2% and
other minorities 8%. Whites will be 4%.
• Births in the United
States will play a growing role in
Hispanic and Asian population growth; as
a result, a smaller proportion of both
groups will be foreign-born in 2050 than
is the case now.
• The non Hispanic
white population will increase more
slowly than other racial and ethnic
groups; whites will become a minority
(47%) by 2050.
• The nation's elderly
population will more than double in size
from 2005 through 2050, as the baby boom
generation enters the traditional
retirement years. The number of working
age Americans and children will grow
more slowly than the elderly population,
and will shrink as a share of the total
population.
The Center's
projections are based on detailed
assumptions about births, deaths and
immigration levels--the three key
components of population change. All
these assumptions are built on recent
trends. But it is important to note that
these trends can change. All population
projections have inherent uncertainties,
especially for years further in the
future, because they can be affected by
changes in behavior, by new immigration
policies, or by other events.
Nonetheless, projections offer a
starting point for understanding and
analyzing the parameters of future
demographic change.
The Center's report
includes an analysis of the nation's
future "dependency ratio"--the number of
children and elderly compared with the
number of working age Americans. There
were 59 children and elderly people per
100 adults of working age in 2005. That
will rise to 72 dependents per 100
adults of working age in 2050.
