PHOENIX (By Scott Wong, Arizona Republic) August 3, 2008 — A flap between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama this week catapulted an Arizona ballot initiative into the national media spotlight, raising questions about whether affirmative action should be outlawed in McCain's home state and how big a factor race will play in the fall presidential contest.

The back-and-forth, with McCain declaring support for the measure and Obama calling the endorsement a flip-flop, puts the issue of race- and gender-based preferences squarely at the heart of the presidential debate. It didn't take long for media personalities such as CNN's Larry King and conservative commentator Michelle Malkin as well as popular blogs such as the Huffington Post to wade into the conversation.

Some initiative backers say the exposure will bolster support for the affirmative-action ban and put it on the minds of voters when they head to the polls in November.

"There are so many initiatives, so many candidates. I looked at my sample ballot the other day, and it's a mini phone book of people running for office," said Max McPhail, executive director of the proposed measure known as the Arizona Civil Rights Initiative. "I think when Obama and McCain both speak out about it, it piques people's interest."

UCLA law Professor Richard H. Sander isn't so sure. Sander, who has written extensively about affirmative action, said political candidates have little influence over the outcome of such initiatives.

In 1996, President Clinton stated his opposition to a California anti-affirmative-action measure known as Proposition 209. Voters helped send the Democrat to a second term, but they also narrowly passed the proposition.

Michigan voters approved a similar measure just two years ago, even though they also re-elected Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm, a staunch defender of public-university, affirmative-action policies.

"These propositions tend to be incredibly popular," said Sander, who has called for more transparency of race-based preference programs. "If they succeed in liberal states, it's hard to see how they wouldn't succeed in places like Arizona and Nebraska."

Following California

Arizona's proposed ban is part of a movement spearheaded by California businessman Ward Connerly to dismantle affirmative-action programs at local and state institutions. Modeled after propositions in California and other states, the Arizona initiative would bar preferential treatment on the basis of race, sex, color, ethnicity or national origin in public employment, education and contracts.

Identical proposals are slated for the fall ballot in Colorado and Nebraska.

The Arizona Secretary of State's Office is still verifying signatures to determine whether Proposition 104 has qualified for the Nov. 4 ballot.

Although the true effect of the measure is unknown, programs in Phoenix and Tucson that give minority- and women-owned small businesses a leg up in the bidding of contracts could be affected. The same goes for WISE, an Arizona State University program that encourages women to pursue studies and careers in applied science and engineering.

A McCain flip-flop?

For months, McCain had refused to take a position on the Arizona initiative. But last Sunday, the Arizona senator told ABC's This Week host George Stephanopoulos that he backed the measure.

"I support it," said McCain, the presumptive GOP nominee for president. "I do not believe in quotas. . . . I have not seen the details of some of these proposals. But I've always opposed quotas."

Obama, asked later that day about McCain's position on the measure, said he was "disappointed" that his Republican rival had "flipped and changed his position" on affirmative action, a policy Obama "strongly supports" as long as it takes into account class and economic hardship as well as race.

Speaking to Hispanic leaders 10 years ago, McCain had condemned "divisive" ballot initiatives like one put forth by an Arizona lawmaker that would ban affirmative action. In that 1998 speech, however, McCain never specifically mentioned GOP state Sen. Scott Bundgaard's proposed referendum.

State Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, a Phoenix Democrat and head of a coalition opposing the Arizona initiative, said McCain's comments this week reflect a "fundamental lack of understanding" about the proposed ban.

"He talks about how he opposes quotas and therefore supports the initiative, but quotas are illegal across the country and have been for quite some time," said Sinema, chairwoman of the opposition group, Protect Arizona's Freedom. "His statements clearly demonstrate he doesn't understand what Arizona laws are and what is at stake in this election."

The McCain campaign, however, has maintained the senator's record is consistent when it comes to affirmative action.

"John McCain believes in the protection of civil rights and equal opportunity for all Americans," McCain spokeswoman Crystal Benton wrote in an e-mail. "He's committed to aggressively enforcing our nation's anti-discrimination laws and to the education of all of America's children so they have the necessary tools to compete and succeed in life."

Connerly, a Black conservative and former University of California regent whose organization has contributed nearly $1 million to the Arizona initiative campaign, characterized comments by both McCain and Obama as "disingenuous." But he added that the Arizona senator should not be faulted for changing his tune.

"It's clear to me that he did change his position, but so did millions of Americans over the last few years," Connerly said. "Senator Obama should be grateful for race-flippers because if it wasn't for them, he would not have been elected the nominee of the Democratic Party."